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Vinyl acetate (VAc), also known as vinyl acetate or vinyl acetate, is a colorless and transparent liquid at room temperature and pressure. As one of the world's most used industrial organic raw materials, VAc can produce polyvinyl acetate resin (PVAc), polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), polyacrylonitrile (PAN) and other derivatives through its own polymerization or copolymerization with other monomers. These derivatives are widely used in construction, textiles, machinery, pharmaceuticals and soil conditioners.

Overall Analysis of Vinyl Acetate Industry Chain

The upstream of the vinyl acetate industry chain is mainly composed of raw materials such as acetylene, acetic acid, ethylene and hydrogen, etc. The main preparation methods are divided into two types: one is the petroleum ethylene method, which is made from ethylene, acetic acid and hydrogen, and is affected by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. One is the preparation of acetylene by natural gas or calcium carbide, and then and acetic acid synthesis of vinyl acetate, natural gas slightly higher cost than calcium carbide. Downstream is mainly the preparation of polyvinyl alcohol, white latex (polyvinyl acetate emulsion), VAE, EVA and PAN, etc., of which polyvinyl alcohol is the main demand.

1、Upstream raw materials of vinyl acetate

Acetic acid is the key raw material upstream of VAE, and its consumption has a strong correlation with VAE. Data show that since 2010, China's apparent consumption of acetic acid as a whole is growing trend, only in 2015 by the industry boom downward and downstream demand changes have declined, 2020 reached 7.2 million tons, an increase of 3.6% compared with 2019. With the downstream vinyl acetate and other products capacity structure change, utilization rate has increased, the acetic acid industry as a whole will continue to grow.

In terms of downstream applications, 25.6% of acetic acid is used to produce PTA (purified terephthalic acid), 19.4% of acetic acid is used to produce vinyl acetate, and 18.1% of acetic acid is used to produce ethyl acetate. In recent years, the industry pattern of acetic acid derivatives has been relatively stable. Vinyl acetate is used as one of the most important downstream application parts of acetic acid.

2. Downstream structure of vinyl acetate

Vinyl acetate is mainly used to produce polyvinyl alcohol and EVA, etc. Vinyl acetate (Vac), a simple ester of saturated acid and unsaturated alcohol, can be polymerized by itself or with other monomers to produce polymers such as polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), ethylene vinyl acetate - ethylene copolymer (EVA), etc. The resulting polymers can be used as adhesives, paper or fabric sizing agents, paints, inks, leather processing, emulsifiers, water-soluble films, and soil conditioners in the chemical, textile It has a wide range of applications in chemical, textile, light industry, paper making, construction and automotive fields. Data show that 65% of vinyl acetate is used to produce polyvinyl alcohol and 12% of vinyl acetate is used to produce polyvinyl acetate.

Analysis of the current situation of vinyl acetate market

1、Vinyl acetate production capacity and start-up rate

Over 60% of the world's vinyl acetate production capacity is concentrated in the Asian region, while China's vinyl acetate production capacity accounts for about 40% of the world's total production capacity and is the world's largest vinyl acetate producing country. Compared with the acetylene method, the ethylene method is more economical and environmentally friendly, with higher product purity. Since the energy power of China's chemical industry mainly relies on coal, the production of vinyl acetate is mainly based on the acetylene method, and the products are relatively low-end. Domestic vinyl acetate production capacity expanded significantly during 2013-2016, while remaining unchanged during 2016-2018. 2019 China's vinyl acetate industry presents a structural overcapacity situation, with excess capacity in calcium carbide acetylene process units and high industry concentration. 2020, China's vinyl acetate production capacity of 2.65 million tons/year, flat year-on-year.

2、Vinyl acetate consumption

As far as consumption is concerned, China's vinyl acetate as a whole shows a fluctuating upward trend, and the market for vinyl acetate in China has been expanding steadily due to the growth of demand for downstream EVA, etc. Data show that, except for 2018, China's vinyl acetate consumption by factors such as the rise in acetic acid prices, consumption has declined, since 2013 China's vinyl acetate market demand has risen rapidly, consumption has risen year by year, as of 2020 low has reached 1.95 million tons, an increase of 4.8% compared with 2019.

3、The average price of vinyl acetate market

From the perspective of vinyl acetate market prices, affected by excess capacity, industry prices remained relatively stable in 2009-2020. 2014 by overseas supply contraction, industry product prices have increased more significantly, domestic enterprises actively expand production, resulting in serious overcapacity. Vinyl acetate prices fell significantly in 2015 and 2016, and in 2017, affected by environmental protection policies, industry product prices rose sharply. 2019, due to sufficient supply in the upstream acetic acid market and slowing demand in the downstream construction industry, industry product prices fell sharply, and in 2020, affected by the epidemic, the average price of products fell further, and as of July 2021, prices in the eastern market reached more than 12,000 The price rise is huge, which is mainly due to the impact of positive news of upstream crude oil prices and the overall low market supply caused by some factory shutdowns or delays.

Overview of Ethyl Acetate Companies

Ethyl acetate Chinese enterprises segment Sinopec's four plants have a capacity of 1.22 million tons/year, accounting for 43% of the country, and Anhui Wanwei Group has 750,000 tons/year, accounting for 26.5%. The foreign-invested segment Nanjing Celanese 350,000 tons/year, accounting for 12%, and the private segment Inner Mongolia Shuangxin and Ningxia Dadi total 560,000 tons/year, accounting for 20%. The current domestic vinyl acetate producers are mainly located in Northwest, East China and Southwest, with Northwest capacity accounting for 51.6%, East China accounting for 20.8%, North China accounting for 6.4% and Southwest accounting for 21.2%.

Analysis of vinyl acetate outlook

1、EVA downstream demand growth

EVA downstream of vinyl acetate can be used as PV cell encapsulation film. According to the global new energy network, EVA from ethylene and vinyl acetate (VA) two monomers by copolymerization reaction, the mass fraction of VA in 5%-40%, due to its good performance, the product is widely used in foam, functional shed film, packaging film, injection blowing products, blending agents and adhesives, wire and cable, photovoltaic cell encapsulation film and hot melt adhesives, etc. 2020 for photovoltaic subsidies in the last year, many domestic head module manufacturers have announced the expansion of production, and with the diversification of photovoltaic module size, double-sided double-glass module penetration rate increased significantly, the demand for photovoltaic modules beyond the expected growth, stimulating EVA demand growth. It is expected that 800,000 tons of EVA capacity will be put into production in 2021. According to the estimation, the growth of 800,000 tons of EVA production capacity will drive the annual growth of 144,000 tons of vinyl acetate demand, which will drive the annual growth of 103,700 tons of acetic acid demand.

2、Vinyl acetate overcapacity, high-end products still need to be imported

China has an overall overcapacity of vinyl acetate, and high-end products still need to be imported. At present, the supply of vinyl acetate in China exceeds the demand, with overall overcapacity and excess production relying on export consumption. Since the expansion of vinyl acetate production capacity in 2014, China's vinyl acetate exports have increased significantly, and some imported products have been replaced by domestic production capacity. In addition, China's exports are mainly low-end products, while imports are mainly high-end products. At present, China still needs to rely on imports for high-end vinyl acetate products, and the vinyl acetate industry still has room for development in the high-end product market.